In 2026, key patents for semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy) are set to expire in several countries, including China, India, and Brazil. The opening of markets to generic manufacturers will lead to a redistribution of shares in a market projected by Mordor Intelligence to reach nearly $32 billion in 2026. In Russia, where the compulsory licensing mechanism has been in effect since 2023, the segment is already operating under competitive conditions with local manufacturers.
Patent Expiration Schedule by Region
Below is data on the expiration dates of exclusive rights and the readiness of local markets:
| Country / Region | Patent Expiration Date | Status and Key Players |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | January 2026 | Patent invalidated. Applications filed by: Sandoz, Apotex, Teva. |
| China | March 2026 | 17 candidates in Phase III. Key players: Huadong Medicine, United Laboratories, Jiangsu Hengrui. |
| India | March 2026 | Large-scale launch. Key players: Dr. Reddy’s, Cipla, Sun Pharma, Biocon. |
| Brazil | March 2026 | Patent extension denied. Local player Biomm preparing for launch. |
| USA / EU | 2031–2032 | Patent protection remains. Generic entry expected no earlier than 2031. |
| Russia | 2031–2035 | Market opened via compulsory licenses (valid until Dec 31, 2026). Key players: Geropharm, Promomed, PSK Pharma. |
Canada: The Start of the Patent Cliff
On January 4, 2026, Canada became the first G7 nation where patent protection for semaglutide expired. The market has transitioned into the generic registration phase. Applications have been filed by international pharmaceutical companies Sandoz, Teva, Apotex, and Aspen. India’s Dr. Reddy’s has also announced plans to enter the market, though the registration process is being delayed due to regulatory procedures.
According to analytical forecasts by Oninvest, the introduction of alternative drugs will lead to a reduction in therapy costs: the expected cost of a monthly course of treatment with generics is projected to be $40–50, which is 70% lower than the current price of the originator drug.
Asian Region: Manufacturing Hub
The most significant market impact will come from the patent expirations in China and India in March 2026. These countries concentrate major capacities for the production of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and possess vast domestic markets.
- China: Patent protection expires in March 2026. Market competition has already led to price wars: Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have reduced prices in several provinces by 50–80%. 17 local companies are preparing to launch analogues, with drugs currently in Phase III clinical trials. Key players include Huadong Medicine, United Laboratories, Qilu Pharmaceutical, and Jiangsu Hengrui.
- India: The country focuses on the export of finished dosage forms. More than 10 companies (including Dr. Reddy’s, Cipla, Sun Pharma, Biocon) are in the final stages of development. Dr. Reddy’s has announced plans to introduce semaglutide generics to markets in 87 countries. Additionally, seven Indian companies have filed applications for the registration of oral formulations of semaglutide.
Brazil: Monopoly Extension Denied
Brazil, the largest pharmaceutical market in Latin America, will also open access to analogues in March 2026. The country’s regulatory authorities officially refused to extend the originator’s patent term.
The key player in this market is the local company Biomm, which has entered into a strategic partnership with the Indian manufacturer Biocon. This will allow for the rapid saturation of the market with affordable drugs immediately after the exclusivity period ends, making Brazil one of the key growth points for generics in the Western Hemisphere.
USA and EU: Protection Remains
Unlike developing markets, the US and Europe remain closed to direct competition until the next decade.
- USA: The main patent is valid until December 2031 and is reinforced by additional patents on delivery devices and dosage forms. Generic manufacturers (including Teva and Mylan) have reached pre-trial settlements with Novo Nordisk, delaying the launch of analogues in the US market.
- European Union: Patent protection has been extended via a Supplementary Protection Certificate (SPC) until March 2031. Although the data exclusivity period expired in January 2026 and some patents on oral forms were invalidated, the mass entry of injectable generics (e.g., from Sandoz) is not expected before 2031.
Russian Federation: Compulsory Licenses and Exports
In Russia, the semaglutide market functions independently of the expiration dates of the main patent (valid until the 2030s). The Russian Government applied the compulsory licensing mechanism (Art. 1360 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation), granting permits to local manufacturers. The validity of current licenses has been extended until December 31, 2026.
The market structure is represented by three main manufacturers:
1. GEROPHARM (Market Share: 50–63%)
Manufacturer of the drug “Semavik”. The company is implementing an export strategy: the drug is registered in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Paraguay. In October 2025, the first shipment was delivered to Paraguay (10,000 packs).
2. PROMOMED (Market Share: 30–35%)
The company’s portfolio includes brands “Quincenta” and “Velgia”. In November 2025, the manufacturer received a registration certificate for the drug “Semaltara” — the first Russian semaglutide in tablet form.
3. PSK Pharma (Market Share: 10–15%)
The company produces an injectable drug under the trade name “Insudive”.
The cost of a monthly course of therapy with Russian analogues has stabilized in the range of 5,000–6,000 RUB, which is multiple times lower than the prices of “grey” imports.
Market Forecast
2026 will be a period of structural change in the semaglutide market. The entry of generics in China, India, and Brazil will trigger a widespread price reduction in developing markets. At the same time, the US and EU will maintain high prices due to active patent protection. Russia will continue to develop within the framework of the existing compulsory licensing mechanism, increasing production volumes and expanding export geography.
